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金卫东董事长

中国三十强饲料企业的四大疑心

作者: 金卫东 泉源: 公布工夫: 2018-09-21 12:50:56 阅读: 2710 字体大小:大号 中号 小号

中国三十强饲料企业当前正处于以下四大疑心当中。坐井观天,姑妄听之。


Based on my personal opinion, currently, there are four important dilemmas which the top 30 feed companies in China face.


一、本土化照样国际化之惑

(Localization or Internationalization)


以泰国正大集团为代表的外资企业在中国开疆拓土获得伟大胜利;以期望集团为代表的外乡企业在越南等国度攻城拔寨取得了卓着成绩。究竟通知我们,贸易无版图。很多巨大企业的生长进程证实,国门以内知名企。


An important trend in recent years is the increased internationalization of global markets. Foreign enterprises, such as CP Group from Thailand, have achieved great success by exploiting the Chinese market. Chinese feed enterprises, such as New Hope Group, have expanded overseas with the prospect of claiming many achievements in foreign countries like Vietnam. These facts signify the importance of the saying that “business knows no borders.” Throughout the course of development, to be successful, enterprises could pursue neither a closed-door nor isolationist policy.


中国壮大的历程实际上也一定伴随着资源、手艺、市场的向外扩大,那刺激着中国饲料行业的发军企业伎痒于国际化的生长。截然对峙的看法则以为,中国事全球最有潜力的市场,外乡企业国际化生长是舍本逐末、舍近求远,何况中国饲料企业无论是股东照样管理团队的素养皆达不到国际化的要求,自觉国际化无异于自取灭亡、自掘坟墓。西谚有云:“离家越近,离失利越远。”


The successful growth and development of China is accompanied by the broad expansion of capital, technology, and markets; these accomplishments greatly encourage Chinese feed enterprises to pursue internationalization. However, the opposing viewpoint insists on localization, based on the notion that China is the market with the highest growth potential in the world today. Proponents of this viewpoint believe there is no need to achieve internationalization simpy for the sake of internationalization; that is, there is no need to strive after something unattainable, meanwhile forgoing substantial opportunities immediately at hand. Moreover, the scale of Chinese feed enterprises and the will of shareholders and management teams may not yet have reached the level required to successfully expand abroad. As is often the case, operating and developing businesses far away from the core, can lead to failure – as encapsulated by the old Western proverb, “the farther away from hometown, the closer to failure.” 


此争辩旷日已久,易有结论。我的见解是中国饲料企业应当起首驻足国内市场,获得上风职位后放眼周边,尤其是越南、老挝、柬埔寨、缅甸、朝鲜、哈萨克斯坦等邻国。关于印度、俄罗斯、韩国、日本等邻国,市场虽大但进入难度亦大,不宜投资。


In weighing the pros and cons of localization versus internationalization, it is difficult to conclude which course is preferable. From my point of view, the primary strategy of Chinese feed enterprises should be to establish dominance in the domestic market, and then move to neighboring, but less-developed countries such as Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, North Korea, and Kazakhstan. Indeed, in spite of larger market sizes, it would be much harder to invest in neighboring but well-developed countries such as India, Russia, South Korea, Japan, and Australia.


二、埋头化照样多元化之惑

(Focus or Diversification)


只管全球大多数企业都是靠“诺基亚形式”即专业化运营,专注于唯一选定的范畴并获得胜利;但也有如美国GE(通用电气公司)者横空出生避世,依附多元化生长获得伟大胜利。中国正处于由浑沌初开背秩序井然的成熟社会过渡的期间,面前活生生的例证是:东方期望集团靠饲料发迹却以电解铝行业成为中国私营企业的俊彦;新期望企业千军万马做饲料,而其最大的收益却来自不经意间投资入股的银行业和房地产业。比年新期望依托资源气力投资控股或入股多家农牧企业,成为果多元化而胜利的明显案例。


Even though many of the world’s successful enterprises, such as Nokia, have pursued a highly focused strategy in a specific sector or industry, other large enterprises, such as GE, have attained even greater success by pursuing a highly-diversified strategy. Currently, China is in a transition point, moving from a developing, volatile, and informal market to a more mature market with rules, regulations, and transparency. For instance,  East Hope Group initially was a feed business, but it soon grew into one of China’s major private aluminum enterprises. Additionally, in its early stages, New Hope Group invested in banking and real estate, instead of focusing its resources on the feed business. Recently, New Hope Group has a robust capital base due to its investment holdings and equity participation in several agriculture companies, which have helped the company to diversify and thereby lower the amount of risk to which it is exposed. 


今天的中国社会,政商干系亲切,果一业兴隆而积聚了充足资金和重大社会资本,从而越发有利于展开多元化的运营。对峙埋头化、顺从多元化,终究才气走上成功之路,是被全球证实了的履历,但在中国却其实不见得灵验。高度专业化企业组成的群体壮大而高效,如:微软、IBM、英特尔果高度合作、亲切协作而令美国成为IT业霸主;而过分零乱的巨子企业,如日韩财团政商勾通虽使其兴起敏捷,却终究障碍行业前进以至风险社会的公平。


Today, the relationship between government and companies has largely been liberalized. The accumulation and distribution of wealth, social benefits, and resources and the pursuit of diversification are based on the decisions and strength of individual enterprises. The most successful approach might be found by examining cases regarding the development of specific businesses and industries, but these examples may not be applicable to China. Highly specialized companies such as Microsoft, IBM, and Intel, which began in the U.S., have become global leaders in the IT industry. On the other hand, some conglomerates in Japan and South Korea may have negatively impacted the overall development of the countries because many deals were made with the respective governments, often behind closed doors. 


多元化照样埋头化要害取决于我们的目的是有限扩大本身的财产数目,照样情愿投身于我们喜好的奇迹、孝敬于我们所发展的国度。我倾向于“有所为,有所不为”。


The problems created by focus and diversification should be decided by each individual enterprise, based upon rational choices about maximizing wealth creation, maximizing economic impact, or becoming a leader within a particular industry or sector. I prefer to be an expert in a given field.  


三、专业化照样一体化之惑

(Specialization or Integration)


专业化天把饲料做粗、做细、做大、做强是我们的传统,那一传统起首在肉鸡家当上碰到应战。全球认同的趋向是,以后很难有单一的商业化肉鸡饲料生产者, 而必需执行从育种到孵化、饲料供给到防疫灭病、养殖到屠宰再到肉品加工的家当一体化运营。肉鸡业的那一趋向是不是也将履行到猪、蛋鸡和反刍动物消费范畴呢?美洲的一体化运营趋向非常显着,以史密斯菲尔德公司为代表的“养殖托拉斯式”的企业,范围伟大并完整阁下了市场价格,使得畜牧业消费更有计划性,但有把持之虞。比年,史密斯菲尔德公司业绩泛起巨额吃亏,阐明该形式运转也并不是完美。


The traditional manner of the feed industry is to specialize in feed production and to increase complexity, enhance technology, and improve quality. This traditional manner has encountered challenges of the broiler industry, as exemplified by the comments, “mere broiler feed producer.” The trend is toward integrated production, by assembling the different branches of the process: breeding, hatching, feed supply, epidemic prevention and control, feeding, slaughtering, and meat processing. This trend will likely also affect pork, layer and ruminant industries. The trend has been the case in America; for example, Smithfield Foods is representative of Trus Model. Large scale production and operations obviously affect the market price and should lead to economies of scale. However, in recent years, Smithfield Foods presented signficant losses in its annual financial report. This data suggests imperfection with the Trus Model. 


若是中国的将来趋向走向一体化,我们便必需自动改变——或本身构成完整产业链、或结合其他相干企业完成一体化运营,只管产业化经营风险伟大,但我们不能不面临这个实际应战。取北美比拟,欧洲的专业化颜色很浓。大量的家庭农场适度范围天运营,当局其实不勉励扩大养殖范围,相反执行配额限定,专业的饲料企业、专业的屠宰加工企业取农场之间签署合约、各司其职,当局经由过程政策间接干涉干与畜牧业生产过程,把周期性的风险分化于差别消费环节和大量的农场,低落了消费风险,收缩了危急工夫。


In fact, this trend toward integration can be particulary challenging, especially if the industry as a whole is consolidating. The challanges lies in converting innovation and execution expertise in a highly-specialized domain, into a broader expertise in integrating other companies into a coherent structure, and operating each component successfully and synergistically. In a sense, compared with North American companies, European ones tend to be even more specialized. Many family farms are under the restriction of quota allocations and limited scales of operation, and formal contracts with specialized feed companies and specialized slaughterhouses. To protect the production and soundness of the market, the government has implemented direct control of the process of production. Government does this through the process known as risk-sharing: it controls each branch of production and a large amount of farms to have risk characteristics that people are comfortable with, thereby reducing crises. 


我仍旧以为欧洲的形式更合适中国国情,但是这类形式在欧洲可以或许施展成效,第一有赖于一个专业化的畜牧业当局管理部门,既能有备无患天防备又能力挽狂澜天阻止;第二有赖于一个高度诚信的贸易文明,各消费环节真正让左券有用实行。


I still consider the model practiced in the EU to be preferable. The EU model is accomplished by maintaining crucial controls over operation of the specializated livestock chain. In addition, well-functioning commercial markets and the principle of good faith are essential to a healthy economy.


四、私家化照样民众化之惑

(Private or Public)


公司经由过程上市在资本市场筹集资金,成为近年来中国企业的盛行做法。饲料行业已有多家姗姗来迟者。在中国难以想象的下市盈率的资源市场环境下,这些企业一夜暴富,明显天拉开了取偕行之间的资源气力差异。股价实下发生的伟大引诱使得“上市”成了比寻求运营质量的进步更加有用的创富手腕,有些企业以至不吝为此故弄玄虚。


A firm may raise funds in financial markets by issuing equity, such as common stock or shares, which represent claims on the net income (income after expenses and taxes) and assets of a business. China has had active capital markets for many years, and therefore there are many publicly-listed feed companies. Companies listed in China have tended to have extraordinarily high P/E ratios, creating sudden wealth and large gaps between listed and unlisted companies. It is possible that some weaker firms may actually be most eager to sell securities to unwary investors, and the resulting adverse selection problem may keep stock prices in bubble territory. Furthermore, because of the market structure and lack of shareholder rights today, once an investor has bought a security, thereby providing money to a firm, the recipient firm may be incentivited engage in riskier activities or to commit outright fraud. 


我们必需晓畅,企业上市或谓民众化只是生长企业的一种手腕,绝非运营企业的目标;企业上市民众化也不是企业发展的唯一路子,关于许多企业而言其实不是最好的手腕。德国宝马公司、美国嘉凶公司都是天下顶尖的大企业,他们却始终保持着私人企业的不坏金身。企业上市后将面对更严厉的民众监视和机构羁系, 同时也会明显进步企业的运营本钱。而为了上市虚报功绩、编造项目可能会使这些企业终究落空竞争力。在实际中国资本市场的实下股价之下,连结理性与众不同的困难,但我们必需量力而行。


But Chinese firms and shareholders should be clear about the following concept: Going public is just an instrument of the company to finance future development, but it is not the final purpose of operations. In contrast, both BMW and Cargill are private holding companies and well-known in the world for many generations. There are stringent reporting requirements for public companies. Their bookkeeping must follow certain strict principles, their books are subject to periodic inspection, and they must make certain information available to the public. These necessary duties increase the cost of operations. Unfortunately, in order to go public, many firms in China create false financial statements and fabricate profit and loss accounts; but such firms will only end in bankruptcy, to the detriment of shareholders, customers, employees, and society. With capital markets supporting such overvalued stock prices, it is unlikely that rational decision-making will be achieved or incentivized in the near-term. But, it is necessary to be honor and pragmatist.



上述疑心以外以三聚氰胺为代表的食品安全事宜,使饲料行业首当其冲成为众矢之的,羁系力度络续加大是当局方面过犹不及的显示,更多行业管理的刻薄新规使得泛起题目时政府能够不负担任何义务,而由企业完整负担统统结果,这类似于商业活动中的霸王条目,抹杀了企业的生机,低落了企业的竞争力,企业明显不堪重负。另外跟着人类运动的增加,地球情况发作猛烈转变,生态系统趋于瓦解,植物疫病愈演愈烈,加上人们对卫生取平安的刻薄要求和对疫病的惊恐心思,使饲料及畜牧业缺少稳固的生计根蒂根基,这个干系国计民生的行业曾经成为一个高危行业。


In addition to the challenges mentioned above, a major concern within the industry is the substandard and deteriorating FSQS (food safety and quality service). Many problems in the food industry have been discovered, such as melamine, which have caused the feed industry to be held at fault by the public. Such debacles, have resulted in increased supervision and regulation of the industry and restrictions imposed on many companies. Going forward, regulation and red tape continue to worsen and impose greater burdens on companies. The livestock industry is now under huge pressure, strangled companies and reduced . Moreover, the world is underoing a dramatic increase in human activity, severe damage to the environment, ecological disasters, and the likelihood of animal-derived epidemics. Considering all of the above components, the feed and livestock industries are under negative status and have recently become even higher-risk businesses.


于2009岁尾


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